Foot and mouth, BSE, and E. coli are three topics sure to get publicity, often confused. One (foot and mouth) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals with severe economic implications for the livestock industry but essentially no human health concerns. Another (BSE) is a difficulty transmitted, not widely distributed, not clearly understood malady with devastating effects on cattle and, potentially, humans. The third (E. Coli, actually E. Coli 0157:H7) is a strain, of a very common bacteria, which can cause human health problems that are generally avoidable with proper food preparation. For more information see http://aphis.usda.gov and http://cdc.gov .
WHAT IS THE CURRENT CONSUMER DEMAND FOR BEEF?
For years we've been hearing there's less consumer demand for beef. What is demand? Some think it's per capita consumption. But that is more a measure of supply than demand, since we eat all of the beef produced. But at what price? Virginia economists devised a measure of demand which includes consumption and price (adjusted for inflation) and studied the period from 1980 to 2000. From 1980, demand decreased every year to 1998, when it was barely half the 1980 level. But since 1998, demand has gone up about 7%. Will this reversal continue? Maybe, particularly if more tasty, easy-to-prepare, value-added products are developed.
EFFECT OF WANING AGE ON PRODUCTIONS AND PROFIT
Nebraska workers studied spring-born calves, weaned early (E,150 days), normal (N, 210 days), and late (L, 270) for 5 years. As weaning age increased: cow body condition was lower; pregnancy rates were similar; steers were fed fewer days; feedyard ADG was higher. E steers were heavier, fatter, and higher grading. E heifers cost more to develop. Compared to N, annual cow costs were $11 lower for E and $22 higher for L. Breakeven production costs were about the same for N and L but were higher for E. These results might vary for other regions, seasons, etc.
MANAGING THE CATTLE CYCLE
Where are we in the cattle cycle, and what should you do about it? Harlan Hughes, one of the most respected beef economists in the country, says we're beginning the expansion phase. Prices bottomed in 95-96 and are much improved today, mainly because cattle numbers were higher then and are lower now. When prices are low people get depressed and don't save many heifers. When prices get good, a lot of heifers are saved. Hughes says that's poor management of the cycle. Save more heifers when they're cheap. They'll be in peak production when prices are highest. Don't save many heifers when they're high. Their most productive years come when prices are lowest. Drouth and other factors can disrupt this strategy. In Texas, a lot of females had to be sold during the drouth, and many producers are understocked. Hughes says resist saving (or buying) high-priced replacements for the next few years. Instead, retain weaned calves to use excess forage. Then expand the cow herd during the next price drop, predicted to be in 05-06. Managing the cycle seems to work when you can do it, at least in hindsight.
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