About at the bottom, according to the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute. They predict beef cow numbers to start increasing, peaking around 2007. Conversely, they predict weaned calf prices to stay about where they are, start down sometime next year and bottom out in 2008-09, declining by around $25-30/cwt over that period. If so, high-dollar heifers saved this year will probably hit their peak productive years during the period of lowest calf prices. Cows with two or three years productive life left might not be as risky. Of course, numbers predictions are just that, and can be influenced by a lot of things, not least of which are weather and politics, domestic and international. The current cattle cycle is in its 13th year, longer than the average of about 10 years. Who knows what will happen for sure? Nobody, but you should plan on what is most likely and adjust as things change, or look like they'll change.
ANOTHER NEW BREED
Another new breed, or composite, is being developed in Alabama. The South Poll has a base of Red Angus and Senepol, the latter a heat tolerant, Virgin Islands-developed breed consisting of Red Poll and N'Dama, a non-Bos indicus West African breed. Other composites are being created, though some probably won't get any farther than the minds of creative visionaries.
HOW DOES AGE AT PUBERTY AFFECT PERFORMANCE AND ECONOMICS?
Up to a point, not much, according to Montana researchers. They used a dynamic computer simulation and found little effect of increased age at puberty (AP) in heifers on either lifetime weaning weight per cow exposed or herd gross financial margin, as long as AP occurred by about 16 months. Beyond that, performance and economics suffered. Later puberty required saving more heifers over time: at AP of 14 mos., sustaining cow numbers required a heifer replacement rate of 14%; at 16 mos. AP, the required replacement rate was 24%. Over 16 mos. AP, cow numbers could not be sustained. Why didn't earlier AP improve gross margin? Because higher income from having more calves to sell was essentially offset by lower income from having fewer open yearling heifers to sell: at 14 mos. AP, only 2% of gross margin came from sale of yearling heifers; at 16 mos. AP, that figure was 23%. This study used a rotational crossing system with Angus and Hereford. Including Bos indicus genetics, as might be done in the South and Southwest, would tend to increase AP. But cow longevity would also tend to increase, so required heifer replacement rates would tend to be lower. Just some of the many tradeoffs in this business.
HEALTH PRODUCTS
Merial is marketing Reliant PlusTM, a viral vaccine containing both killed and modified-live IBR, along with PI3, BVD, and BRSV. Bayer has a new pyrethroid-type ear tag, CyLenceTM, claimed to be effective against face flies as well as horn flies. Boehringer Ingelheim is marketing Caliber 7TM, a two-dose, 2ml, 7-way Clostridial vaccine.
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